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        <title>Evaluation thinking: complex? Complicated?</title>
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        <description>We often use complicated and complex as if they meant the same thing. But the distinction matters enormously for how we design, manage, and evaluate interventions. Drawing on the Cynefin framework, this short video explores why different situations require different ways of thinking. In simple and complicated contexts, we can rely on established knowledge, expert analysis, and relatively predictable relationships between actions and results. In complex situations, however, change emerges through interactions, relationships, and shifting circumstances. We cannot simply plan our way to success: we need to observe, learn, and adapt. Using examples from humanitarian practice, the video shows why applying linear solutions to complex problems can produce tunnel vision and rigidity, while treating complicated problems as complex can mean unnecessarily reinventing the wheel. What does this mean for monitoring and evaluation? Traditional M&amp;E often assumes relatively linear pathways of change. Embracing complexity requires us to look beyond predefined results, pay attention to processes and emerging dynamics, and use evaluative thinking to support adaptation rather than simply check compliance. And now, with AI, the distinction becomes even more important. AI can make established processes faster and expert knowledge more accessible. But generating convincing answers is not the same as understanding complexity. The challenge is to recognise what kind of thinking a situation requires, what AI can usefully support, and where human judgment, contextual understanding, and adaptation remain essential. Ultimately, the question is not just which tools we use, but whether we are using the right kind of thinking for the situation we face.</description>
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